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THE International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that by 2014 the world's airlines will handle 46 per cent more cargo to 38 million tonnes, an increase of 12.5 million tonnes against the 26 million tonnes in 2009.
"In five years we need to be able to handle 800 million more passengers and 12.5 million more tonnes of international cargo," said director general and CEO Giovanni Bisignani.
"To realise the economic growth potential that this will bring, we will need even more efficient air traffic management, airport facilities and security programmes. Industry and governments will be challenged to work together even more closely," he said.
IATA said international freight volumes are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2 per cent over the forecast period.
"Excluding the impact of the rapid post recession rebound in 2010, for the 2011-2014 period, the consensus view for air freight is that it will stabilise at five per cent CAGR. This is slightly below the forecast growth in world trade (six per cent) suggesting a still conservative outlook after the recession shock and possibly some loss of market share to sea shipping," it said.
The top five fastest growing international air freight markets from 2009-2014 are expected to be Hong Kong at 12.3 per cent, China at 11.7 per cent, Vietnam at 11.4 per cent, Taiwan at 11.3 per cent, and the Russian Federation at 11 per cent.
By 2014, the largest international air cargo markets are predicted to be the US with 8.8 million tonnes, Hong Kong with 5.4 million tonnes, Germany with 4.4 million tonnes, Japan with 4.4 million tonnes, and China with 3.8 million tonnes.
"The volume growth expected in China and Hong Kong will account for a third of global (airfreight) volume growth over the period to 2014," IATA said in releasing its latest 'industry consensus forecast.'
Over the 2009-2014 forecast period IATA anticipates the Asia Pacific region will see the highest growth rate for international air cargo at 9.8 per cent with Hong Kong, Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan comprising the region's top five markets.
It said the Middle East will see international air freight demand grow by 8.1 per cent, Africa by 5.8 per cent, Europe by 6.5 per cent, Latin America by 6.4 per cent and North America by 7.6 per cent with the US expected to remain the largest international air cargo market by some margin.
IATA said international passenger numbers are expected to rise from 952 million in 2009 to 1.3 billion passengers in 2014, at a CAGR of 5.9 per cent.
The fastest growing markets for international passenger traffic are anticipated to be China, up 10.8 per cent; the United Arab Emirates, up 10.2 per cent; Vietnam, up 10.2 per cent; Malaysia, up 10.1 per cent; and Sri Lanka, up 9.5 per cent.
By 2014, the top five countries for international travel measured by number of passengers are expected to be the United States (at 215 million, an increase of 45 million), the United Kingdom (at 198 million with an increase of 33 million), Germany (at 163 million with an increase of 29 million), Spain (123 million with an increase of 21 million), and France (111 million with an increase of 21 million).
"The focus of the industry continues to shift eastwards. By 2014, one billion people will travel by air in Asia Pacific. That's 30 per cent of the global total and a four-percentage point increase from the 26 per cent it represented in 2009. The same is true for cargo where Asia Pacific will account for 28 per cent of global volumes," Mr Bisignani said.
